Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcbc4…c319 world 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$45
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4
sports 24% −$39
politics 24% −$12
other 12% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 12% -7.4%
≤90d 14 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 7% -9.6%
all 14 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -28.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -41.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage82d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 24 $394 +$2 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 24 $398 −$5 -1%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $274 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 14 $460 +$50 +11%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 14 $457 −$2 -0%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $461 +$39 +8%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? Jun 02 $469 −$10 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 26 $114 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 04 $43 $0 +0%
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) Apr 21 $374 +$17 +5%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $386 +$1 +0%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) Apr 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) Apr 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $396 19m
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $394 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $356 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $398 4h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $274 4d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $274 4d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 90¢ $460 10d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $455 10d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $457 10d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $461 22d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $459 22d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $469 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 37¢ $59 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 38¢ $40 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 39¢ $1 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 39¢ $1 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 39¢ $2 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 39¢ $2 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 39¢ $8 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 38¢ $114 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $22 51d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $21 51d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $21 51d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $18 51d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 51d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Gaziantep FK 96¢ $374 65d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $375 65d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $375 65d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC $17 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records