Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbc5…c8a7 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2
other 26% +$5
sports 9% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 15% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 15% 0% -10.0%
all 37 -2.3% -11.6% 43% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -9.0%
10% -20.1% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage478d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -13%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $40 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $28 −$2 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $46 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 -10%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $9 $0 +3%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $2 $0 +9%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $17 +$3 +18%
Cleveland State vs. Wright State Feb 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parlia Feb 26 $13 $0 +0%
St. John's vs. Butler Feb 26 $13 $0 +0%
South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts Feb 26 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $43 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $40 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $23 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $17 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $35 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records