Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbc7…9b07 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$13 (-14%) realized −$8 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$1
other 26% −$11
crypto 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 33% -4.8%
≤30d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 39% -19.8%
≤90d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 39% -19.8%
all 18 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 39% -19.8%
10% -30.4% 28% -27.5%
15% -37.1% 17% -34.5%
20% -43.3% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia Latvia 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? No 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Lynn Vision $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 41¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Heroic 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner BIG 68¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +149%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $9 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $4 +$4 +91%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 42m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 46m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team $1 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 13¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 20¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 88¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 11¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $2 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $3 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere $0 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 89¢ $10 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $1 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 27¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 22¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 24¢ $2 3d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 22¢ $1 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 64 history records