Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

CB 0xcbcb…4da3 world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$231per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-11.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.1%	-9.6%	50%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	3	-2.1%	-11.4%	33%	0%	-9.9%
≤90d	3	-2.1%	-11.4%	33%	0%	-9.9%
all	3	-2.1%	-11.4%	33%	0%	-9.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.4%	0%	-9.9%
10%	-19.9%	0%	-18.5%
15%	-27.7%	0%	-26.4%
20%	-34.7%	0%	-33.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.18 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage13d

Avg bet$231

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Jun 28	$321	+$1	+0%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	Jun 28	$335	−$1	-0%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	Jun 15	$37	−$2	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	SELL No	96¢	$321	1h
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	BUY No	96¢	$321	2h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	95¢	$334	3h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$335	5h
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	SELL Yes	8¢	$16	13d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	SELL Yes	8¢	$19	13d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	BUY Yes	8¢	$14	13d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	13d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	BUY Yes	8¢	$19	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records