Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbcb…9497 sports 346 markets active 5h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$26 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%172W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$2
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$25
other 30% −$3
world 4% −$1
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$6
economics 2% −$4
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$6
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +13.5% +2.7% 59% 58% +0.7%
≤30d 209 +4.2% -5.7% 51% 49% -4.7%
≤90d 258 +5.7% -4.3% 55% 51% -3.5%
all 305 +2.3% -7.4% 56% 49% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 49% -6.0%
10% -16.3% 43% -15.0%
15% -24.4% 36% -23.2%
20% -31.8% 29% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses172 / 133
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions41
Markets (closed)305 / 346
History coverage169d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 62¢ 61¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 40¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
100kt meteor strike in 2026? No 97¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 36¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 55¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $5 +$9 +172%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Ipek Oz Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +35%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 +$10 +191%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$10 +197%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $5 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $5 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $5 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $5 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $5 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5 5h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 36¢ $5 5h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 75¢ $5 5h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Ipek Oz BUY Julia Riera 61¢ $5 5h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 66¢ $5 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 23¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $5 5h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 68¢ $10 5h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ $10 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $5 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 20h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 26¢ $5 20h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 58¢ $5 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 20h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 83¢ $5 29h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 29h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 29h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $5 29h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 60¢ $5 29h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 31¢ $5 29h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $10 29h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 25¢ $5 29h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 28¢ $5 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.84 · official $115.85 (match) · 650 history records