trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 70% | 65% | +39.0% |
| ≤30d | 20 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 70% | 65% | +39.0% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 70% | 65% | +39.0% |
| all | 20 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 70% | 65% | +39.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +17.2% | 65% | +39.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +6.0% | 65% | +25.7% |
| 15% | -4.2% | 55% | +13.5% |
| 20% | -13.6% | 45% | +2.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 66¢ | $93 | $86 | −$7 (-7%) |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | $65 | $69 | +$4 (+6%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 73¢ | $50 | $61 | +$11 (+23%) |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 83¢ | $54 | $60 | +$6 (+11%) |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 22¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 23¢ | $30 | $28 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 44¢ | 42¢ | $25 | $24 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | Jun 22 | $79 | +$29 | +36% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 22 | $8 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Jun 21 | $46 | +$31 | +67% |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $1 | +$1 | +55% |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo | Jun 20 | $31 | +$39 | +127% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $1 | +$1 | +50% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 20 | $11 | −$7 | -59% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo | Jun 20 | $26 | +$18 | +70% |
| Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner | Jun 20 | $11 | +$7 | +60% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner | Jun 20 | $6 | +$4 | +67% |
| Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner | Jun 20 | $24 | +$8 | +33% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London | Jun 20 | $6 | −$1 | -15% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla | Jun 20 | $51 | +$66 | +129% |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | Jun 19 | $88 | +$28 | +32% |
| Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner | Jun 19 | $10 | +$9 | +86% |
| Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof | Jun 19 | $24 | +$26 | +109% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Jun 19 | $28 | −$5 | -17% |