Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbce…5acc sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-5%) realized −$29 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$73
sports 49% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.1% -6.7% 21% 21% +50.7%
≤30d 19 +3.1% -6.7% 21% 21% +50.7%
≤90d 19 +3.1% -6.7% 21% 21% +50.7%
all 19 +3.1% -6.7% 21% 21% +50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 21% +50.7%
10% -15.6% 21% +36.3%
15% -23.8% 21% +23.1%
20% -31.3% 21% +11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$10 · ×7.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 41¢ 42¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -57%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$68 +330%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 23 $26 +$121 +474%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$66 +324%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$60 +388%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Po BUY 5¢ $15 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $10 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 9¢ $21 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 6h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) SELL 99¢ $88 9h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $26 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 22¢ $20 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 33h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $20 41h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 43h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Türkiy BUY 9¢ $15 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.46 · official $180.47 · 39 history records