Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcbce…507d weather 488 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,027 (+1%) realized +$1,128 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate79%379W / 101L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$547
14 days−$125
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$530
sports 0% +$26
other 0% +$47
world 0% −$15
economics 0% +$22
crypto 0% +$29
politics 0% +$22
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -8.1% -16.8% 81% 6% -11.8%
≤30d 142 -2.7% -11.9% 87% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 371 -1.6% -11.0% 87% 11% -9.1%
all 480 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 17% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 12% -17.7%
15% -26.9% 9% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$38 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$1,128
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses379 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)480 / 488
History coverage114d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? No 74¢ 57¢ $441 $343 −$99 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Yes 99¢ 26¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 +$7 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 22 $71 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,589 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $339 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $434 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $525 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,134 +$27 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $263 +$20 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $168 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $1,193 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,013 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a Jun 18 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $352 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,630 +$41 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $484 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $468 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $253 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $439 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $266 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $319 −$319 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Portuga Jun 17 $1 +$1 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $194 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $529 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $77 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $753 −$507 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,275 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,305 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,266 +$27 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 −$27 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $176 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,563 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $253 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $402 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 68¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 66¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 26¢ $72 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $71 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $63 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $541 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,114 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $339 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.22 · official $380.22 (match) · 2808 history records