Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcbcf…63bd crypto 1032 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,997 (-8%) realized −$19,997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%516W / 516L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$1,249
14 days−$1,785
30 days−$33,742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$22,058
sports 1% −$473
other 0% −$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 40% -29.0%
≤30d 653 -37.4% -43.3% 36% 31% -39.0%
≤90d 1032 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 40% -17.8%
all 1032 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 40% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 40% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 32% -25.7%
15% -38.8% 24% -32.9%
20% -44.8% 19% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$123 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses516 / 516
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1032 / 1032
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$238
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1032 Trades
no open positions (195 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $228 +$59 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $126 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $157 −$150 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$53 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $130 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$56 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$53 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $129 +$106 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$37 +72%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$38 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $287 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $136 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records