Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbd0…dec4 tech 1420 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,483 (+1%) realized +$3,487 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1407W / 3L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$292
14 days−$262
30 days+$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$458
tech 27% +$1,171
finance 22% +$413
other 15% +$1,201
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 1% -10.3%
≤30d 175 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 796 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 1410 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$403 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.03 per $1 lost it wins $5.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$1,062
Realized+$3,487
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1407 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1410 / 1420
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$423
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $608 $610 +$2 (+0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $205 $206 +$1 (+0%)
Will Micron (MU) close at <$900 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 8 – Jun 12? No 99¢ 95¢ $124 $119 −$5 (-4%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 16? No 99¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 15? Jun 15 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$3 +2%
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $367 +$15 +4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 15? Jun 15 $394 +$8 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $73 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $212 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $108 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $275 +$3 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $571 +$6 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $629 +$6 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1,557 +$20 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $684 +$33 +5%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $772 +$7 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 8 20 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 8 20 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $324 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $590? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading o Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading o Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $630? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420-$430 on the final day of trading o Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $620? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $420-$425 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $610? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $315? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $340? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $600? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 8 above $410? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading o Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 8 above $420? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $280? Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 15m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $609 26m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $205 26m
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 29m
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 30m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 30m
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 31m
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 32m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 53m
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 22h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 22h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 22h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $394 22h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 22h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $139 22h
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $84 23h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $367 23h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $542 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $230 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $108 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $73 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $114 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $212 3d
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $630? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $620? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $610? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $600? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $590? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 8 202 BUY No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $772 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,061.78 · official $1,061.78 (match) · 3500 history records