Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbd6…2025 crypto 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$816 (+3%) realized +$816 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%106W / 169L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,289
7 days+$1,274
14 days+$1,240
30 days+$2,273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$644
sports 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +28.8% +16.6% 70% 70% +33.6%
≤30d 168 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 41% +4.7%
≤90d 259 -13.2% -21.5% 38% 37% -4.2%
all 275 -11.3% -19.7% 39% 38% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 38% -6.3%
10% -27.4% 37% -15.3%
15% -34.4% 35% -23.4%
20% -40.8% 33% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$64 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$816
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses106 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)275 / 275
History coverage119d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 275 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $979 +$446 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $658 +$322 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET Jun 24 $353 +$291 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $202 +$175 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $124 +$71 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $70 +$54 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 23 $200 −$194 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$124 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$12 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$25 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $75 −$72 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $47 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $28 −$17 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $59 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$14 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$10 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $47 −$24 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10PM ET Jun 08 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9PM ET Jun 07 $171 −$66 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET Jun 07 $45 +$26 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $43 −$37 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 06 $67 −$66 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 06 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $13 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8PM ET Jun 06 $69 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 05 $105 −$33 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET Jun 05 $72 −$15 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $575 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $850 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $979 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $980 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $658 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $627 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 781 history records