Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CB 0xcbda…7b6b crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+11%) realized +$168 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 46% +7.4%
≤30d 35 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 46% +7.4%
≤90d 35 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 46% +7.4%
all 35 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 46% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 46% +7.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 43% -2.9%
15% -20.6% 34% -12.3%
20% -28.4% 26% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$168
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $231 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $90 +$38 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $127 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$22 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$76 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$4 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $28 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $69 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $100 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $143 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $1.21 · 86 history records