Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcbda…d2c0 other 14 markets active 6h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$224 (+15%) realized +$188 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days+$176
14 days+$176
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$37
politics 36% +$195
sports 14% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.9% +7.6% 77% 77% +2.8%
≤30d 13 +18.9% +7.6% 77% 77% +2.8%
≤90d 13 +18.9% +7.6% 77% 77% +2.8%
all 13 +18.9% +7.6% 77% 77% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 77% +2.8%
10% -2.7% 69% -7.0%
15% -12.1% 54% -16.0%
20% -20.7% 38% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$114 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally? Yes 60¢ 69¢ $240 $276 +$36 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Frank" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $58 +$11 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $38 +$20 +54%
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? Jun 15 $80 +$96 +120%
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? Jun 15 $148 +$83 +56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$61 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $81 +$23 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Trump say "Polling" this week? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $108 +$45 +42%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 11 $129 +$31 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 12h
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally? BUY Yes 60¢ $59 13h
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 13h
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally? BUY Yes 60¢ $150 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $104 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $81 4d
Will "Frank" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 84¢ $58 4d
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? BUY No 74¢ $4 4d
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? BUY No 73¢ $4 4d
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? BUY No 66¢ $10 4d
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? BUY No 66¢ $7 5d
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? BUY No 64¢ $25 5d
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? BUY No 63¢ $6 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 63¢ $3 5d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 61¢ $12 5d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 60¢ $35 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $108 6d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 73¢ $32 6d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 72¢ $7 6d
Will Trump say "Polling" this week? BUY No 74¢ $41 6d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 72¢ $17 6d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 56¢ $41 7d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op BUY L1ga Team 98¢ $5 7d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op BUY L1ga Team 98¢ $20 7d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op SELL L1ga Team 91¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.53 · official $275.57 (match) · 48 history records