Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CB 0xcbdb…7f58 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$136 (-20%) realized −$143 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip

Net edge-55%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%5W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day44.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-46.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-41.2%	-46.8%	24%	24%	-32.6%
≤30d	21	-41.2%	-46.8%	24%	24%	-32.6%
≤90d	21	-41.2%	-46.8%	24%	24%	-32.6%
all	21	-41.2%	-46.8%	24%	24%	-32.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover44.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-46.8%	24%	-32.6%
10% ← realistic here	-51.9%	24%	-39.0%
15%	-56.6%	19%	-44.9%
20%	-60.8%	14%	-50.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -41% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -86% → late -1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$25 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized−$143

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses5 / 16

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day44.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	Chicago White Sox	19¢	24¢	$23	$30	+$7 (+29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 17	$53	−$33	-62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 17	$44	+$15	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 17	$46	+$96	+208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$22	−$4	-20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 17	$48	−$46	-95%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag	Jun 17	$51	+$72	+142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 17	$13	−$12	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 17	$51	−$21	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$55	+210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 17	$7	−$7	-94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Jun 17	$55	−$54	-98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$12	−$11	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 17	$8	+$3	+41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$82	−$80	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 17	$19	−$18	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 17	$8	−$8	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees	BUY Chicago White Sox	19¢	$24	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$21	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	SELL Up	42¢	$17	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$31	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$18	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$34	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Down	51¢	$25	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$21	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$62	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Up	30¢	$18	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$16	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$37	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$26	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$30	17m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	44¢	$18	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$11	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$38	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$21	25m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$22	31m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag	SELL Team Evictix	99¢	$123	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$13	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$21	1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag	BUY Team Evictix	40¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	SELL Down	11¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$81	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$21	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.66 · official $29.66 (match) · 50 history records