Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcbdc…37f7 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$297 (-4%) realized −$295 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%36W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$250
economics 1% +$5
politics 0% −$21
sports 0% +$10
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 49 -10.2% -18.8% 73% 20% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 20% -12.6%
10% -26.6% 14% -20.9%
15% -33.7% 8% -28.6%
20% -40.2% 8% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$66 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses36 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage196d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 36¢ 34¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 03 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 29 $263 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Jan 28 $249 +$14 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 28 $187 +$63 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $184 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $379 +$22 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $372 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $354 +$18 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $321 +$34 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $287 +$33 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $252 +$36 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jan 07 $230 +$21 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? Jan 05 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $180 +$10 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 01 $176 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $170 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $137 +$33 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $250 +$23 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $110 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $105 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 28 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $143 −$104 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $180 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $294 −$39 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 21 $254 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 21 $252 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $239 +$13 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $158 +$81 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $308 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $146 +$9 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $137 +$9 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $129 +$8 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Dec 13 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 13 $73 +$56 +76%
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision? Dec 10 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 10 $10 −$4 -39%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 07 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 07 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on De Dec 06 $10 −$8 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $265 137d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 SELL No 99¢ $265 141d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $263 141d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $263 142d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $249 142d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 75¢ $187 142d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $187 142d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $184 142d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $401 156d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $401 157d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $379 157d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $372 158d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $372 159d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $354 159d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $354 159d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $321 159d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $321 159d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $287 160d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $287 161d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $252 162d
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 162d
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $230 163d
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $230 164d
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $200 166d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $200 167d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $190 167d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $190 168d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 94¢ $180 169d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $180 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.29 · official $47.30 (match) · 109 history records