Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcbde…8f8a crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,333 (+54%) realized +$1,333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,308
crypto 24% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +20.1% +8.7% 100% 29% +38.2%
≤30d 7 +20.1% +8.7% 100% 29% +38.2%
≤90d 7 +20.1% +8.7% 100% 29% +38.2%
all 7 +20.1% +8.7% 100% 29% +38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 29% +38.2%
10% -1.7% 29% +25.0%
15% -11.2% 29% +12.9%
20% -19.9% 29% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $815 +$483 +59%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1,072 +$825 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $1,298 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $815 9h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $1,898 9h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $1,072 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records