Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcbdf…7f36 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$222 (+5%) realized +$217 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$494
7 days+$396
14 days+$396
30 days+$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$104
politics 18% −$5
crypto 16% +$240
tech 7% +$15
sports 7% −$66
world 7% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +39.9% +26.6% 50% 50% +31.1%
≤30d 10 +39.9% +26.6% 50% 50% +31.1%
≤90d 10 +39.9% +26.6% 50% 50% +31.1%
all 38 +38.6% +25.4% 63% 42% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.4% 42% -4.3%
10% +13.4% 29% -13.4%
15% +2.4% 26% -21.8%
20% -7.6% 24% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$67 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$576
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage620d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $220 $221 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $201 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $145 $141 −$4 (-3%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 22¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+115%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $507 +$243 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $232 +$165 +71%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$82 +550%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9 +$16 +165%
Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Dec 01 $143 +$7 +5%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $233 +$67 +29%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Nov 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 17 $214 +$8 +4%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 15 $68 +$7 +10%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 08 $401 +$24 +6%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Nov 06 $114 +$11 +9%
Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? Nov 05 $190 +$17 +9%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $180 +$20 +11%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 04 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3? Nov 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Nov 02 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 02 $3 +$47 +1371%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Nov 02 $109 +$241 +221%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 28 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Michael Van Gerwen win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? Jan 03 $192 −$192 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Dec 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Dec 18 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Dec 18 $102 +$60 +59%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $54 +$46 +84%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 28 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 26 $65 +$10 +15%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 26 $17 +$13 +79%
Hoffman vs. Warwick Oct 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 10 $247 +$33 +14%
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? Oct 09 $250 +$55 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $147 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $221 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $507 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $145 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 8h
Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9h
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 9h
Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 9h
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $9 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 15¢ $15 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $12 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $41 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $54 6d
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 211d
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 211d
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 212d
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 212d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY Yes $40 215d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL Yes 99¢ $124 215d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 65¢ $65 217d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 95¢ $119 219d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb BUY No 95¢ $79 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.73 · official $575.75 (match) · 152 history records