Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbdf…0ee4 crypto 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,233 (-11%) realized −$2,233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%174W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days−$1,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,534
other 1% −$1
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.4% -2.8% 62% 15% -2.9%
≤30d 115 -6.3% -15.2% 66% 45% -20.1%
≤90d 250 -4.1% -13.2% 70% 50% -21.2%
all 250 -4.1% -13.2% 70% 50% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% -21.2%
10% -21.5% 24% -28.7%
15% -29.1% 14% -35.6%
20% -36.1% 9% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$66 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses174 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage71d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $111 +$8 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $110 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$33 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $77 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$8 +13%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 25 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Jun 25 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Jun 25 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 25 $44 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $59 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $90 +$6 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $131 −$38 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $101 +$20 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $81 +$22 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $41 −$39 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $70 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $116 +$7 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $65 +$7 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 02 $35 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 30 $226 −$167 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $405 −$405 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 30 $537 −$537 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 30 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $502 +$26 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $65 +$10 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 30 $60 +$7 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 30 $202 +$26 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $202 +$25 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 30 $131 −$28 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 30 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $77 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $68 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $60 5h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $54 31h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 31h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 31h
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? SELL No 50¢ $25 31h
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? BUY No 52¢ $26 31h
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? SELL No 48¢ $47 31h
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? BUY No 49¢ $25 31h
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? BUY No 49¢ $25 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 648 history records