Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbe0…56ea sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$145 (+9%) realized +$144 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$77
sports 24% +$176
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -13.4% -21.7% 35% 29% +6.3%
≤30d 34 -13.4% -21.7% 35% 29% +6.3%
≤90d 34 -13.4% -21.7% 35% 29% +6.3%
all 34 -13.4% -21.7% 35% 29% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 29% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 26% -3.9%
15% -36.0% 26% -13.2%
20% -42.3% 24% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$7 · ×4.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $46 +$128 +279%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $63 +$4 +6%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $701 +$8 +1%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $1 +$6 +550%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$13 +66%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +354%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $147 +$100 +68%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$24 +47%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $111 +$84 +75%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina $5 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $1 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $20 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $20 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $1 19h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $2 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 21h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $700 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $67 21h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 24h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $1 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 27h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $30 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.55 · official $100.55 (match) · 80 history records