Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcbe4…8bc0 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+1%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
other 17% −$5
politics 12% −$7
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$165
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 18% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 48 +10.7% +0.1% 31% 23% -7.1%
all 59 +8.6% -1.8% 29% 19% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 19% -8.9%
10% -11.2% 19% -17.6%
15% -19.7% 19% -25.6%
20% -27.6% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×7.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage605d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $299 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$7 +62%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $238 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $460 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $228 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $458 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $469 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $223 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$3 +50%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 +$4 +62%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 +$9 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $10 +$12 +124%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 02 $22 +$34 +156%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 02 $33 +$32 +96%
Wild vs. Bruins Mar 29 $26 +$28 +108%
Kings vs. Flames Mar 27 $20 +$27 +133%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $20 +$28 +144%
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 151.5 Mar 24 $22 +$24 +107%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $51 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 12m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 21h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 25h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 26h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $149 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $31 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $31 28d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $49 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $5 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 30d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 31d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 31d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $7 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.09 · official $216.09 (match) · 257 history records