Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbe5…8d2c other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-0%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$25
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$79
sports 25% −$20
culture 6% −$5
politics 5% −$3
economics 5% −$2
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$4
tech 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 87 -0.4% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 183 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.8%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage138d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $331 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $367 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $230 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $339 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $971 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $519 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $356 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $240 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $251 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $259 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $31 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $31 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $31 9h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $31 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 16h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 17h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 19h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 21h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 26h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 27h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 29h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $32 30h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $32 32h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $32 37h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $32 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 42h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $32 42h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $32 43h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 47h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $32 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $32 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.94 · official $30.94 (match) · 1518 history records