Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcbe9…6537 world 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$40 (+9%) realized +$44 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$1
other 26% +$17
crypto 7% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+82.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +89.6% +71.5% 100% 100% +71.5%
≤30d 6 +133.3% +111.1% 83% 67% +2.9%
≤90d 8 +101.1% +82.0% 88% 50% +2.5%
all 8 +101.1% +82.0% 88% 50% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +82.0% 50% +2.5%
10% +64.5% 25% -7.3%
15% +48.6% 25% -16.3%
20% +34.1% 25% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$31 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage75d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 88¢ 68¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$23 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $91 +$17 +19%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? May 30 $107 +$16 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 27 $79 +$17 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $102 −$31 -30%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 23-29? Apr 13 $7 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.57 · official $15.57 (match) · 17 history records