Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbee…e3c3 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%45W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$4
crypto 13% +$1
other 6% $0
tech 5% +$2
sports 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$14
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 59 -1.6% -11.0% 76% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses45 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage535d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $45 +$1 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $39 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $34 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Apr 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 13 $70 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 20 $3,838 −$4 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 61d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $46 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 92d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 123d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $59 151d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 182d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 182d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 182d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $56 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 242d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $39 243d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 271d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 272d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $34 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 333d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $40 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 362d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.29 · official $58.29 (match) · 128 history records