Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcbef…0c11 sports 912 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$358 (-0%) realized −$366 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%566W / 345L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$1,071est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$219
14 days+$428
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,093
other 2% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -19.2% -26.9% 60% 60% -12.5%
≤30d 174 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 60% -10.1%
≤90d 911 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 60% -10.6%
all 911 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 60% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 60% -10.6%
10% -22.3% 52% -19.2%
15% -29.8% 38% -27.0%
20% -36.7% 27% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$100 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses566 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$1,071
Open positions1
Markets (closed)911 / 912
History coverage87d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 911 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $400 $408 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $503 +$114 +23%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$273 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $353 −$350 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $504 +$190 +38%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $502 +$80 +16%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,005 +$198 +20%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $303 +$126 +42%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 −$400 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $315 +$130 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$126 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $202 +$101 +50%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $151 +$153 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $192 −$190 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $152 −$149 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $303 +$147 +48%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $202 +$80 +40%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $203 +$262 +129%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $204 +$309 +152%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $201 −$200 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $302 −$300 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $244 +$227 +93%
ITF Martos: Rigele Te vs Joao Domingues Jun 10 $304 +$199 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $403 +$104 +26%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 10 $403 +$130 +32%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $162 −$160 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $102 +$148 +146%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $210 −$207 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $153 +$95 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $153 +$103 +67%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $153 −$151 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $153 +$168 +109%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $352 +$102 +29%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $202 −$200 -99%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $151 +$57 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $202 +$115 +57%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $152 −$150 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $151 −$150 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $152 +$121 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $403 47m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $503 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $1,006 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $353 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 25h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $504 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,204 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 86¢ $502 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 26h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 56¢ $304 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $406 28h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $254 29h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 70¢ $303 29h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $203 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $202 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 68¢ $315 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 7d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 67¢ $192 7d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 56¢ $304 7d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Arthur Rinderknech 59¢ $202 7d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 40¢ $152 7d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 49¢ $151 7d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 66¢ $202 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 67¢ $303 7d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1,005 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 71¢ $202 8d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $201 8d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 39¢ $204 8d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 76¢ $302 8d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY James McCabe 43¢ $203 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.00 · official $408.00 (match) · 1843 history records