Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbef…9ab0 politics 302 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,806 (-11%) realized −$9,222 · open +$2,416
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%120W / 140L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$22,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$174
14 days+$418
30 days−$9,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$999
other 30% −$3,467
politics 15% −$3,044
tech 6% −$163
culture 2% +$44
economics 1% −$128
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$96
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +409.4% +360.8% 71% 71% +310.5%
≤30d 132 +4.6% -5.3% 26% 18% -40.3%
≤90d 222 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 22% -27.8%
all 260 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 28% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 28% -25.0%
10% -17.2% 19% -32.2%
15% -25.2% 15% -38.7%
20% -32.5% 10% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$93 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$22,346
Realized−$9,222
Unrealized+$2,416
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses120 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)260 / 302
History coverage103d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 51¢ 70¢ $10,854 $15,128 +$4,274 (+39%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 32¢ 30¢ $4,216 $4,046 −$169 (-4%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 13¢ 8¢ $4,533 $2,967 −$1,567 (-35%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No 15¢ 9¢ $103 $66 −$37 (-36%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? No 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? No 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? No 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? No 9¢ 7¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? No 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? No 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? No 10¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? No 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-79%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Trump announce Stephen Hahn as the next FDA commissioner by December 31? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$4 -32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $44 +$69 +155%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$64 +1250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$31 +147%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$126 +605%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $5 +$36 +702%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "Yips" in June? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $18 +$246 +1394%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $19 −$18 -96%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -59%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 05 $14 +$2 +14%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 05 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 04 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Jun 04 $2,899 −$309 -11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $21 −$9 -44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 01 $6 −$5 -76%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$5 +75%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Jun 01 $6 −$2 -36%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 01 $9 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $6 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $5 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $20 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $30 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $20 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $20 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $20 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $100 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $6 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $6 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $9 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $8 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $104 6h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 7¢ $104 6h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $16 4d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 9¢ $5 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $28 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $40 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $61 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $24 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $14 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $2 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $35 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,345.69 · official $22,345.70 (match) · 1694 history records