Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcbf0…fdbe other 825 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,177 (+5%) realized +$1,196 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%334W / 483L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$810
14 days+$1,042
30 days+$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$748
other 36% +$181
politics 5% +$145
tech 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$20
world 0% +$21
culture 0% −$52
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +38.3% +25.1% 68% 64% +4.3%
≤30d 167 +12.3% +1.6% 56% 53% -1.1%
≤90d 408 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 45% -4.3%
all 817 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 39% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 39% -6.2%
10% -18.1% 35% -15.2%
15% -26.0% 30% -23.4%
20% -33.3% 25% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$1,196
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses334 / 483
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions8
Markets (closed)817 / 825
History coverage230d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 81¢ $277 $269 −$8 (-3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 63¢ 57¢ $63 $57 −$6 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 325 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $62 +$40 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $350 +$70 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $62 +$37 +60%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 +$42 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $161 +$49 +31%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $146 −$145 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $193 +$47 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $96 +$54 +57%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $90 −$88 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $146 −$145 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $58 +$41 +70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $149 +$61 +41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$31 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 +$88 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $201 +$69 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 +$43 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$49 +32%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$59 +150%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $231 +$69 +30%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $64 −$62 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $16 +$17 +104%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $155 +$55 +35%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $61 +$44 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $77 +$22 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $301 +$48 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $238 +$62 +26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $304 +$33 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $303 +$30 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 +$56 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$94 +1770%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $55 +$47 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $61 +$38 +63%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $67 +$36 +55%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $161 +$50 +31%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $72 +$48 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $71 +$29 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $279 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $62 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $350 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $62 8h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 56¢ $56 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 34h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $146 34h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $161 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $240 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $90 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $146 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $193 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $43 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $99 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $100 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 77¢ $161 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $203 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $8 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.96 · official $380.01 (match) · 1913 history records