Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbf0…196b crypto 911 markets active 2d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$450 (-7%) realized −$450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%540W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$38
14 days+$93
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$304
weather 9% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -6.9% -15.8% 65% 65% -15.6%
≤30d 773 -6.8% -15.7% 67% 66% -14.0%
≤90d 911 -15.1% -23.2% 59% 59% -17.2%
all 911 -15.1% -23.2% 59% 59% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 59% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 36% -25.1%
15% -37.2% 16% -32.3%
20% -43.4% 6% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses540 / 371
Open positions0
Markets (closed)911 / 911
History coverage36d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 911 Trades
no open positions (357 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$6 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $12 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1506 history records