Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcbf3…80ab other 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$306 (+3%) realized +$419 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%201W / 292L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days+$35
14 days+$53
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$266
sports 16% −$25
politics 1% −$52
world 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.3% -19.8% 40% 40% -3.2%
≤30d 128 -4.5% -13.6% 35% 34% -13.5%
≤90d 380 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 39% -6.6%
all 493 +1.5% -8.1% 41% 40% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 40% -7.0%
10% -16.9% 38% -15.9%
15% -25.0% 37% -24.1%
20% -32.3% 34% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$419
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses201 / 292
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)493 / 500
History coverage150d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $99 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 59¢ 100¢ $35 $60 +$25 (+69%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $53 $32 −$21 (-40%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $59 $16 −$43 (-73%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $72 +$42 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 +$13 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28 +$17 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$52 +414%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +41%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $34 +$20 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$19 +307%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $6 +$9 +152%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 +$13 +194%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $336 −$7 -2%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $9 +$11 +124%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $135 +$64 +48%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $11 +$19 +165%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $9 +$6 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $26 −$1 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $96 +$14 +14%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 +$23 +1115%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $29 −$25 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $22 +$8 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 32m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $36 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $22 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 46h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $11 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $12 3d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 71¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.64 · official $238.64 (match) · 1477 history records