Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcbf4…2365
crypto · 45 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$85 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$282
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage31d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$128
14 days+$128
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 61¢ 58¢ $295 $282 −$13 (-4%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 8¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $181 +$173 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$79 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$51 +99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $219 −$215 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $104 +$173 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $208 +$292 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $441 +$1,141 +259%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $221 −$215 -97%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 16 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $284 +$241 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 16 $130 −$100 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 16 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $156 +$262 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 12 $26 +$99 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 12 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 12 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 12 $109 −$104 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 12 $103 +$57 +55%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$744
other 14% +$826
sports 6% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.2% -29.6% 35% 35% -5.6%
≤30d 36 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 36% -6.4%
≤90d 44 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 36% -10.7%
all 44 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 36% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 36% -10.7%
10% -32.0% 36% -19.3%
15% -38.6% 34% -27.1%
20% -44.6% 32% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.02 · official $282.02 (match) · 120 history records