Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbfa…1f40 tech 47 markets active 3h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,188 (+2%) realized +$3,656 · open +$532
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate85%34W / 6L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$3,638per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$21,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$650
14 days+$833
30 days+$2,972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$446
tech 36% +$1,262
other 11% +$370
crypto 8% +$1,581
finance 1% +$12
sports 0% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 40 -6.0% -14.9% 85% 2% -7.7%
≤90d 40 -6.0% -14.9% 85% 2% -7.7%
all 40 -6.0% -14.9% 85% 2% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 2% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 0% -16.5%
15% -30.5% 0% -24.6%
20% -37.3% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$4,746) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$140 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.55 per $1 lost it wins $4.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$21,137
Realized+$3,656
Unrealized+$532
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses34 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)40 / 47
History coverage29d
Avg bet$3,638
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $11,008 $11,217 +$208 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $4,712 $4,848 +$136 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $2,456 $2,560 +$104 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,395 $2,480 +$85 (+4%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 27, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 26 $635 +$6 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 25 $2,030 +$70 +4%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on or prior to June 24, 2026? Jun 25 $177 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $20,969 +$31 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $9,035 +$413 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $9,771 +$129 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $4,034 +$47 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $11,551 −$563 -5%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$3 +5%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $4,090 +$1 +0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3,528 +$18 +0%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 15 $549 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $1,509 +$9 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5,207 +$81 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2,843 +$110 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,830 +$168 +6%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $2,981 +$23 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6,814 +$364 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3,988 +$12 +0%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $121 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 13 $697 −$10 -1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $670 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $2,388 +$12 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $3,145 +$27 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,780 +$7 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $7,622 +$31 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $4,746 +$135 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4,339 +$120 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,306 +$105 +8%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,233 +$47 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $7,971 +$114 +1%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 02 $48 −$31 -65%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 02 $88 −$65 -74%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14,414 +$1,581 +11%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,106 +$133 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $641 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $635 5h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,436 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2,399 25h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,862 25h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $4,714 27h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2,462 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4,723 28h
Will GPT-5.6 be released on or prior to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $177 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,030 2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $433 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20,969 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $9,900 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $9,680 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,569 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $128 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $6,574 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $3,186 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $436 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,137.00 · official $21,137.00 (match) · 247 history records