Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

CB 0xcbfb…4e63 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$25 (-6%) realized −$24 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-35.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-28.8%	-35.6%	50%	50%	-16.8%
≤30d	4	-28.8%	-35.6%	50%	50%	-16.8%
≤90d	4	-28.8%	-35.6%	50%	50%	-16.8%
all	4	-28.8%	-35.6%	50%	50%	-16.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.6%	50%	-16.8%
10%	-41.8%	25%	-24.7%
15%	-47.4%	25%	-32.0%
20%	-52.5%	25%	-38.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$64 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.79 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized−$24

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$48	$48	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$48	$47	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$85	+$12	+14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$29	−$28	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$127	+$89	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$48	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$49	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$85	19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	29¢	$29	19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$127	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.40 · official $95.40 (match) · 8 history records