Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbfc…b095 other 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,493 (-14%) realized −$2,481 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%41W / 66L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$702
7 days+$74
14 days+$90
30 days−$3,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,124
sports 42% −$1,838
crypto 5% −$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 56% -8.7%
≤30d 97 -24.5% -31.7% 38% 38% -26.1%
≤90d 107 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 38% -26.7%
all 107 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 38% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 38% -26.7%
10% -39.2% 31% -33.7%
15% -45.1% 24% -40.1%
20% -50.5% 20% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$119 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$2,481
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses41 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage33d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 86¢ 80¢ $163 $151 −$12 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $74 +$90 +121%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $849 −$839 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 +$40 +66%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $95 +$38 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$147 +287%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$32 -31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $400 −$396 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $996 +$566 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $100 +$140 +140%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $183 +$208 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $123 −$121 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $67 +$106 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $798 +$149 +19%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $705 +$160 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $498 +$206 +41%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $382 +$117 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $604 +$185 +31%
Liverpool Montevideo vs. Cerro Largo FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $504 +$100 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $416 +$88 +21%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 07 $282 +$134 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $168 +$113 +67%
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? Jun 06 $262 −$232 -88%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $72 +$67 +93%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $91 −$20 -22%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $104 −$13 -13%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-05-22? May 24 $45 −$44 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $29 −$28 -98%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $156 −$128 -82%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $142 +$15 +11%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $541 −$401 -74%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $194 +$349 +180%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz May 24 $427 −$420 -98%
Will CSD Municipal win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $88 +$340 +388%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $119 −$117 -98%
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Fujieda MYFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $149 −$145 -98%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $75 −$73 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $170 +$92 +54%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $326 −$319 -98%
Will NK Osijek vs. NK Slaven Belupo end in a draw? May 22 $149 −$140 -93%
Exact Score: El Gouna SC 0 - 1 Tala'ea El Gaish SC? May 22 $149 −$147 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 86¢ $164 2m
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL Yes 37¢ $164 3m
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 16¢ $74 25m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 58¢ $2 56m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 60¢ $799 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $49 1h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 17¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $25 1h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $101 2h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 2h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $133 2h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $95 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 40¢ $50 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $99 5h
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $66 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $70 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $326 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $74 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $101 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 29¢ $41 25h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,562 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $994 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 58¢ $334 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $391 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.99 · official $150.99 (match) · 184 history records