Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcbff…4140 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$250 (-3%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$339
other 15% +$77
world 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 4% -11.9%
≤30d 25 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 4% -11.9%
≤90d 25 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 4% -11.9%
all 25 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 4% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 4% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -20.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$102 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $224 +$19 +8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $221 +$3 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $203 +$18 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $191 +$12 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 −$9 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $191 +$9 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $171 +$20 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $402 −$232 -58%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $379 +$23 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $362 +$18 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $338 +$23 +7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $321 +$17 +5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $417 −$96 -23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$12 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $388 +$17 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $381 +$7 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $373 +$8 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $622 −$249 -40%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $616 +$6 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $624 −$8 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $570 +$54 +9%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $525 +$45 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $565 +$51 +9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $470 +$4 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $645 −$16 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $242 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 92¢ $224 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $224 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $221 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 99¢ $221 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 91¢ $203 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $203 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $191 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $191 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $200 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $191 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $191 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 89¢ $171 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $171 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $402 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $402 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $379 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $379 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $362 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $362 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $338 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $338 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $321 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 65¢ $321 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $417 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $417 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $405 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $405 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $388 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.03 · official $158.03 (match) · 52 history records