Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbff…e8e7 crypto 639 markets active 20h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,467 (-2%) realized −$2,475 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate48%305W / 331L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$1,904
14 days−$2,782
30 days−$3,386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$993
crypto 15% −$455
other 14% +$295
sports 8% −$347
politics 5% −$1,225
finance 0% −$15
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$31
culture 0% −$19
weather 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.1% -21.4% 50% 6% -27.7%
≤30d 135 -14.7% -22.8% 56% 10% -18.3%
≤90d 373 -12.3% -20.7% 58% 12% -12.7%
all 636 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 18% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 18% -12.0%
10% -27.7% 12% -20.4%
15% -34.6% 8% -28.1%
20% -41.0% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2,475
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses305 / 331
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)636 / 639
History coverage239d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 636 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 76¢ 92¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $114 −$42 -37%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $279 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,004 −$123 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7,348 −$1,649 -22%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $145 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $90 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Jun 10 $38 −$9 -24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 09 $46 −$27 -58%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $956 −$703 -74%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $15 −$12 -83%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $19 −$18 -96%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $97 −$44 -45%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -29%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $705 +$7 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $698 +$7 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $107 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 03 $612 +$7 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $1,832 +$38 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 03 $13 +$2 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $938 +$7 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $631 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $359 +$143 +40%
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $16 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $365 −$6 -2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 May 31 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $3 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 91¢ $36 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $38 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 64¢ $38 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 62¢ $37 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $37 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $36 27h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 41¢ $36 27h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 87¢ $76 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $33 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $34 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $104 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $103 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $97 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $3 41h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 99¢ $101 41h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 96¢ $93 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $93 41h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 94¢ $5 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $62 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $32 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 93¢ $95 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $95 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $11 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.95 · official $47.95 (match) · 2439 history records