Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc07…0540 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$3
other 21% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.2% -6.7% 20% 20% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 7% -10.2%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage473d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $39 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 19 $16 +$1 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $19 $0 -1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $37 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $37 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records