Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc11…a6eb crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$16
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% +3.2%
≤30d 44 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -11.3%
≤90d 44 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -11.3%
all 44 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 43% -11.3%
10% -30.4% 43% -19.7%
15% -37.1% 43% -27.5%
20% -43.3% 43% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $17 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records