Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc13…5c6f other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-35%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$19
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$42
sports 26% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -56.8% -60.9% 14% 14% -71.0%
≤30d 34 -22.7% -30.1% 24% 21% -50.6%
≤90d 36 -17.9% -25.7% 28% 25% -44.9%
all 36 -17.9% -25.7% 28% 25% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 25% -44.9%
10% -32.8% 25% -50.2%
15% -39.3% 19% -55.0%
20% -45.2% 17% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage32d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +173%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +221%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 +$14 +672%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$5 +261%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $7 +$3 +46%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Platense end in a draw? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $10 −$1 -9%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 41h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 43h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 45h
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8d
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 8d
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8d
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 8d
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 8d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 56¢ $16 9d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 81 history records