Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc18…d048 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,759 (+18%) realized +$1,523 · open +$1,236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$9,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$634
7 days+$1,252
14 days+$1,017
30 days+$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,146
crypto 29% +$1,274
finance 8% +$189
world 3% +$223
politics 1% −$31
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% −$12
sports 1% −$62
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.5% +8.1% 71% 71% +40.1%
≤30d 37 -31.1% -37.6% 32% 30% +8.1%
≤90d 67 -11.7% -20.1% 39% 33% +8.9%
all 84 -10.2% -18.7% 40% 36% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 36% +10.8%
10% -26.5% 33% +0.2%
15% -33.6% 29% -9.5%
20% -40.1% 21% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$26 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$9,074
Realized+$1,523
Unrealized+$1,236
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions34
Markets (closed)84 / 119
History coverage167d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,565 +$565 (+56%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,100 $1,435 +$335 (+30%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $1,000 $1,256 +$256 (+26%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,025 +$25 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $500 $613 +$113 (+23%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $120 $126 +$6 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 36¢ 94¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+160%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 64¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 15¢ 12¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 61¢ 84¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$9 -46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,022 +$607 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$85 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 +$118 +97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$21 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $121 +$7 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$17 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 05 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $200 +$82 +41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $101 −$95 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 26 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 26 $102 −$99 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $10 −$2 -18%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 17 $158 −$80 -50%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by May 31, 2026? May 03 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $500 +$382 +76%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in April? May 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $102 −$5 -5%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $10 +$19 +188%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 29 $102 −$87 -85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY 7¢ $771 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $56 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $81 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,074.50 · official $9,824.51 · 250 history records