Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc19…cf8e other 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 23% −$20
politics 10% −$6
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage127d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $259 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $554 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $380 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $322 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $405 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $392 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $410 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $463 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $177 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $129 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $284 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $259 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 50m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 2h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 4h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 6h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 10h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 11h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 14h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 17h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 18h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 20h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 21h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 26h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 28h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 32h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 35h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 41h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 43h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 44h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 45h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 47h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.18 · official $52.18 (match) · 1314 history records