Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CC 0xcc1c…3439 crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$515 (+1%) realized +$390 · open +$125
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%102W / 65L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,556
crypto 44% −$1,113
world 3% −$302
politics 1% +$322
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.4% +28.8% 50% 50% +14.9%
≤30d 4 +39.3% +26.0% 50% 50% -61.8%
≤90d 33 -11.3% -19.7% 45% 39% -6.7%
all 167 -11.5% -20.0% 61% 40% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 40% -8.8%
10% -27.6% 20% -17.6%
15% -34.6% 11% -25.5%
20% -41.0% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$122 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$125
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses102 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)167 / 171
History coverage192d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 62¢ $315 $438 +$122 (+39%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Yes $26 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 27 $27 +$39 +144%
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 26 $37 −$22 -59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $37 +$63 +172%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $329 −$328 -100%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $296 +$99 +33%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $435 −$342 -79%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $414 −$170 -41%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $512 +$209 +41%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $140 −$91 -65%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 29 $81 +$10 +12%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 29 $134 −$129 -96%
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale? Apr 26 $285 −$285 -100%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 25 $810 +$170 +21%
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 24 $609 −$276 -45%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 23 $125 −$125 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $688 +$708 +103%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 17 $120 −$60 -50%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 17 $259 −$147 -57%
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? Apr 17 $55 −$54 -97%
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 17 $1,105 −$6 -1%
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 15 $84 −$21 -25%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 14 $393 +$34 +9%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 13 $3,073 +$621 +20%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 13 $2,005 +$838 +42%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 13 $564 −$448 -79%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $335 +$160 +48%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $335 +$163 +49%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $512 −$244 -48%
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 09 $502 −$110 -22%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 01 $153 +$38 +25%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $5,993 +$1,419 +24%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 31 $92 +$8 +8%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $3,567 −$1,065 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 31 $159 −$151 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 31 $475 −$475 -100%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 31 $225 +$15 +7%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 30 $1,106 +$158 +14%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $589 +$13 +2%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $710 −$304 -43%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $416 −$19 -4%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 27 $1,176 +$144 +12%
Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 26 $1,635 +$260 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 23 $64 −$17 -26%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $27 −$8 -30%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $42 −$21 -50%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 22 $420 +$174 +42%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 20 $430 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $26 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1 BUY $30 2d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes $15 2d
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 41¢ $27 3d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 45¢ $203 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $316 27d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 35¢ $73 33d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $134 33d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $56 33d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 10¢ $67 34d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes $50 34d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $0 34d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $32 34d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $66 34d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 34d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $191 34d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 34d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes $123 34d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 29¢ $63 34d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $108 34d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $193 34d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $23 35d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 33¢ $43 35d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 35¢ $222 35d
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 60d
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.25 · official $465.25 (match) · 1101 history records