Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc1e…f4ed other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$735 (-33%) realized −$735 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$721
sports 23% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.1% -23.2% 35% 22% -37.1%
≤30d 23 -15.1% -23.2% 35% 22% -37.1%
≤90d 23 -15.1% -23.2% 35% 22% -37.1%
all 23 -15.1% -23.2% 35% 22% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 22% -37.1%
10% -30.5% 17% -43.1%
15% -37.3% 13% -48.6%
20% -43.4% 9% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$53 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$735
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage18d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$137 -45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $131 +$33 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$7 -34%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $29 −$25 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 −$5 -13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $161 −$24 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $263 −$124 -47%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $393 −$183 -47%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$3 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $30 −$21 -70%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $332 −$157 -47%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$7 +7%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $41 +$33 +82%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $46 −$9 -19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 −$70 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 16m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 32m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 32m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $31 33m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $166 36m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $164 43m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $20 49m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 84¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $13 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 85¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes $4 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $4 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $27 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $20 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 3h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $137 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $113 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $156 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $139 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 4h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records