Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc22…4eb9 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$12
world 39% −$3
politics 10% −$1
finance 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 47% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 22 +7.4% -2.8% 45% 5% -9.6%
all 57 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 4% -8.7%
10% -16.5% 4% -17.4%
15% -24.6% 4% -25.4%
20% -32.0% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage459d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $56 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $39 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $40 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $43 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $4 $0 -6%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 05 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 13 $24 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 12 $25 $0 -2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $12 +$12 +93%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $11 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $10 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $12 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $14 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $26 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.76 · official $38.70 · 175 history records