Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc25…b0cf other 119 markets active 3h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$18
politics 30% −$13
sports 11% +$42
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 118 +1.5% -8.2% 9% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×10.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage131d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $334 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $183 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $712 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $263 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $225 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $297 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $308 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $324 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $303 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $232 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $297 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $28 28h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 16d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 21d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $183 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $183 24d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 24d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 25d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $234 25d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $234 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $224 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $224 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $183 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $183 29d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 29d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 30d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $190 30d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $190 31d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 32d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 32d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $182 32d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $182 33d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 33d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 33d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $183 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 347 history records