Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc2a…fd76 crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%33W / 3L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$30
crypto 36% +$2
other 1% +$1
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 8% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 8% -8.3%
10% -18.5% 8% -17.0%
15% -26.4% 8% -25.1%
20% -33.6% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses33 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage612d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? Jun 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 15? Apr 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 10? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 8? Apr 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 28? Apr 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 26? Mar 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? Mar 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Mar 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? Feb 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Feb 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 04 $20 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $1,158 +$12 +1%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series? Nov 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will GD win a majority in Georgia parliamentary election? Nov 01 $9 +$7 +72%
Colts vs. Texans Oct 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 73d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 76d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 81d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 83d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 94d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 96d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $25 124d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 98¢ $13 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $25 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $25 145d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 150d
Will Solana reach $270 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 227d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 20¢ $2 519d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.95 · official $25.95 (match) · 84 history records