Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc2b…e40f crypto 887 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized −$103 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate88%782W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$60
14 days−$102
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 345 -4.2% -13.3% 89% 16% -11.7%
≤30d 853 -2.6% -11.8% 90% 15% -10.8%
≤90d 886 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 16% -10.8%
all 886 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 16% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 16% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 7% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 4% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses782 / 104
Open positions1
Markets (closed)886 / 887
History coverage33d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 886 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 99¢ 96¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $34 +$18 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $33 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $34 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.84 · official $22.93 · 1766 history records