Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xcc2c…0a2c other 1485 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,035 (-1%) realized −$4,035 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%1436W / 49L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% +$183
other 25% −$312
politics 19% +$116
world 14% +$133
weather 9% +$46
crypto 3% +$18
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$5
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.1% -25.0% 22% 4% -23.5%
≤30d 44 -21.5% -29.0% 32% 16% -11.4%
≤90d 1485 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.5%
all 1485 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,035
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1436 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1485 / 1485
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$386
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1485 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$5 -30%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -80%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -34%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -30%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $530 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $62 −$5 -9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $124 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,146 +$31 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 30 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 29 $106 +$94 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 29 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,575 +$147 +9%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $78 −$7 -8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $391 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $627 −$242 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET May 18 $34 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 01 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 01 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 01 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 55m
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 SELL Yes 13¢ $3 56m
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 11¢ $2 56m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 56m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 57m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 15 2026 SELL Yes 4¢ $1 58m
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 58m
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 36¢ $3 58m
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 23¢ $9 59m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 52¢ $10 59m
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 SELL No 84¢ $17 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 15 2 SELL Yes 80¢ $16 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 83¢ $16 1h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 85¢ $17 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $530 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 SELL No 94¢ $19 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 15 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 80¢ $16 2h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 25¢ $5 3h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 3h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 3h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 89¢ $18 4h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 38¢ $3 4h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 4h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records