Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc2d…18b1 politics 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%8W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$7
sports 27% −$3
world 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
other 5% +$2
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.7% -18.3% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -3.9% -13.0% 11% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -3.5% -12.7% 20% 0% -9.4%
all 60 -7.7% -16.5% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage240d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $62 +$4 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $70 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 23 $134 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $70 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $142 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $1 $0 -50%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $148 −$1 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $71 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $76 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $3 $0 -11%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $70 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $1 $0 -12%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $150 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $2 $0 -10%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -50%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $81 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 33h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $62 13d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $64 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $65 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 18d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 22d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 32d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 45d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 108d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $69 113d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $69 117d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 98¢ $66 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records