Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc2f…154b world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$10
other 24% +$2
politics 7% −$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 18% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 18% 0% -11.1%
all 32 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage472d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $121 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $44 −$9 -20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $80 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 18 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $1 $0 -30%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $1 $0 -9%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? Mar 11 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $35 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $36 3h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $2 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $31 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $31 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $33 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $37 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $32 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $13 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $20 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $36 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $35 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records