Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

CC 0xcc32…92d2 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$13,106 (+9%) realized +$14,650 · open −$1,544

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate69%25W / 11L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown69%max

Avg bet$3,862per market

Trades / day15.3pace

Fees−$1,110est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$12,446now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	36	+13.8%	+2.9%	69%	67%	-5.6%
≤30d	36	+13.8%	+2.9%	69%	67%	-5.6%
≤90d	36	+13.8%	+2.9%	69%	67%	-5.6%
all	36	+13.8%	+2.9%	69%	67%	-5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.3 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+2.9%	67%	-5.6%
10% ← realistic here	-6.9%	50%	-14.6%
15%	-15.9%	33%	-22.9%
20%	-24.1%	14%	-30.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

4% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$5,090) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +43% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,366 vs −$2,595 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$12,446

Realized+$14,650

Unrealized−$1,544

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses25 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$1,110

Open positions1

Markets (closed)36 / 37

History coverage9d

Avg bet$3,862

Trades / day15.3

Drawdown69%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 36 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	Over	77¢	68¢	$13,990	$12,446	−$1,544 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Jun 18	$5,022	+$34	+1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$2,160	−$2,123	-98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$6,692	−$4,502	-67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$5,090	+$1,584	+31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$3,640	+$878	+24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$2,536	+$1,102	+43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$9,525	−$9,525	-100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$7,585	+$1,959	+26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$938	−$938	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,110	+$916	+82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$2,968	+$1,061	+36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$1,150	−$590	-51%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5)	Jun 17	$148	−$148	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$5,728	+$824	+14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$4,351	+$859	+20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$4,405	+$1,200	+27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$515	−$515	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$3,430	+$1,490	+43%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$3,105	+$331	+11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$2,805	+$299	+11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$1,393	+$414	+30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$9,667	+$2,719	+28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$1,881	+$7,793	+414%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$6,955	−$5,111	-74%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$881	−$881	-100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$3,991	−$3,991	-100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$509	+$363	+71%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$10,055	+$1,455	+14%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 14	$278	−$219	-78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$8,775	+$1,492	+17%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$1,027	+$2,752	+268%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$4,377	+$1,645	+38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$1,931	+$936	+48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$797	+$718	+90%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$1,971	+$755	+38%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$1,413	+$560	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	77¢	$14,087	1h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	48¢	$1,943	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	42¢	$2,160	2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	23¢	$2,190	2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$6,692	3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$6,674	4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	76¢	$741	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	76¢	$326	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	76¢	$536	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	76¢	$1,745	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	76¢	$1,741	5h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	40¢	$1	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	100¢	$4,518	5h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	40¢	$9	5h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	40¢	$5	5h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	41¢	$571	5h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	40¢	$15	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	80¢	$3,640	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$3,638	5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	69¢	$2,536	6h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	52¢	$2	7h
Fed rate hike in 2026?	SELL No	52¢	$2,511	7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$10	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$8	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$950	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$18	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$16	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$304	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$292	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$17	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,445.83 · official $12,809.21 · 151 history records