Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc36…d35d sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,163 (-6%) realized −$1,148 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 57L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$442est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$432
14 days−$477
30 days−$722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,087
other 16% −$156
politics 1% −$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.2% -17.8% 41% 3% -17.8%
≤30d 76 -9.0% -17.6% 39% 3% -13.4%
≤90d 88 -13.0% -21.2% 35% 2% -15.2%
all 88 -13.0% -21.2% 35% 2% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 2% -15.2%
10% -28.8% 1% -23.3%
15% -35.7% 1% -30.7%
20% -42.0% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$24 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$442
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage36d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $285 $278 −$8 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 38¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner K27 55¢ 55¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $200 $0 -0%
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $55 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $230 $0 -0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $140 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $13 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $320 −$70 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $103 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $436 +$11 +3%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 −$34 -13%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $185 −$3 -1%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $370 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $89 +$3 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $110 +$7 +7%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $626 −$6 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $180 −$8 -5%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $155 −$34 -22%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $235 +$5 +2%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $405 −$134 -33%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $156 +$5 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $450 +$5 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $220 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $201 −$14 -7%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 11 $390 +$5 +1%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $330 −$15 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $295 +$5 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 10 $139 +$2 +2%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $207 +$16 +8%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $305 +$5 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $300 +$5 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $375 −$13 -4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $305 +$5 +2%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $540 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $580 −$7 -1%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) May 31 $240 −$240 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 30 $255 +$3 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $376 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $360 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $200 34m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 40¢ $195 54m
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL X-CAST 70¢ $19 56m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 40¢ $3 57m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL Virtus.pro 40¢ $2 59m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $200 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $2 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Vitality 42¢ $43 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 46¢ $230 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.51 · official $488.51 (match) · 475 history records